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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still